Chapter 53
Singapore, the Embassy of the United States of America
November 13, 2006, 09:00 local time
Carl watched the slow progress of the small boat across the electronic map of the Singapore Strait.
Carl asked, “How long before it leaves the area covered by the imaging satellites?”
His deputy replied, “Two hours at the most.”
“What happens then?”
“It disappears.”
“And the Indonesians are still refusing to let us go after them?”
”Now the hijacking crisis is over, the Indonesians are saying it would be an unjustified violation of their territorial integrity if US forces were to enter their waters in order to apprehend suspects. They say they will use force to stop any incursion. By the way, an Indonesian Naval vessel is within visual range of the boat.”
“And they won't arrest the men themselves?”
“They say they don't arrest people in Indonesia without evidence. They say we need to produce evidence and go through the established legal procedures.”
Carl wanted to use some choice expletives to describe the Indonesians, but just said, “So the perpetrators are going to get away?”
His deputy said, “There is one possibility we should consider. I spoke to Captain Fordham earlier. He said the Singaporeans have a means of covertly tracking vessels. Apparently, the US is involved in the project. He said if I wanted to know more I should contact someone called Charles Corrigan.”
Carl responded, “I know Corrigan. We used him as the cover to get the two Special Forces guys, Jackson and Bao into the country. Get Corrigan on the phone.”
***
As Carl hung up the phone, he came to a decision on what to do next. He straightened his tie, picked up the laptop computer and left his office, heading for the crisis meeting. He would keep the focus on his new plan, and use it to blunt any criticism about the CIA's performance to date.
When Carl entered the conference room, the meeting was already underway. He ignored the look from the Ambassador for being a few minutes late, and took a seat.
Captain Fordham, the Naval Attaché, began speaking.
“The current situation is as follows. All the Seventh Fleet ships are now in international waters in the South China Sea, twenty five nautical miles from the outermost Riau Islands, and twelve nautical miles from the limit of Indonesian territorial waters. Indonesia has two coastal patrol boats just inside Indonesian territorial waters following the Fleet. A third patrol boat is positioned in the center of the Singapore Strait. Two larger, frigate sized, Indonesian vessels are on their way from southern Sumatra and should arrive shortly. Indonesian warplanes are making regular patrols along the edge of their airspace, and US Navy planes are shadowing them from international airspace, when they are in the vicinity of the Seventh Fleet.
“The Indonesians are threatening to sink any foreign naval vessel that enters their territorial waters and shoot down any foreign military aircraft that enters their airspace. They are denying that hot pursuit applies now the hijacking incident is over.
The Ambassador asked, “Captain Fordham, would you characterize the situation as a standoff?”
“It's a standoff in a diplomatic sense, rather than in a military sense. US Naval assets, both ships and planes, could enter Indonesian waters and airspace at any time, and any resistance from the Indonesian armed forces would just result in their ships being sunk and their planes shot down. Why a diplomatic standoff developed, I'll leave to the State Department's representative to address.”
“Thank you, Captain. We may need to come back to you. We'll hear from the State Department's representative, the First Secretary for Political Affairs, next.”
The First Secretary referred to his notes before speaking. “Our relationship with Indonesia is the most difficult in this region for a combination of reasons that I expect most of you are familiar with. Recently, with a new democratically elected government in Jakarta, relations have been improving.
“Indonesia, because of its history as a country created out of a European country's imperial possessions, is especially sensitive about any threats, including symbolic ones, to its territorial integrity.
”We had hoped that the seriousness of yesterday's terrorist hijackings would make the Indonesian Government cooperate in efforts to hunt down those responsible. In particular, we hoped they would be amenable to hot pursuit operations by the US military. Initially, we were given strong indications that our request to allow US military forces into Indonesian waters would be approved, with restrictions of course and that is why we made a formal request. Unfortunately, the influence of TNI, the Indonesian military, which takes a hard line on these issues, was greater than we anticipated and the Indonesian Government refused our request outright.
“In hindsight, the State Department's insistence that we formally request the Indonesian Government allow pursuit of persons suspected of involvement in the hijacking, may have been a mistake. As not only was the request flatly refused, it was accompanied by a great deal of rhetoric about national sovereignty that doesn't bode well for future relations. It also gave Indonesia time to mobilize its military assets.”
The Ambassador said, “So, First Secretary, you are now saying we should have gone ahead and snatched any of the hijackers we could find, without asking the Indonesian's permission and consequently warning them of our intentions?”
“You could phrase it that way, Ambassador.”
“Anything else?”
“Yes, the Singaporean Government has formally requested that we not conduct any military operations from their territory or territorial waters. Privately, they have assured us that the official statement is for consumption in Indonesia and Malaysia, and they are well aware we can now conduct our operations from international waters. They also assure us, they will give any non-military support they can, particularly intelligence.”
The Ambassador asked, “Do the Singaporean have any advice on how we should deal with the Indonesians?”
“Their advice is not to make any militarily provocative moves. They say the Indonesians are not bluffing and will respond if we use military assets to apprehend suspects. They note that Indonesia has a word for this kind of situation. They call it Konfrontasi, which literally means confrontation, but with the implication that force can and should be used in order to protect the interests and territorial integrity of the Indonesian state.
“The State Department strongly urges that we avoid any actions that might prompt a military response. Such actions would in all likelihood result in an extended period of military tensions, and could, for example, result in Indonesia trying to prevent our ships using the Malacca and Singapore Straits.”
The Ambassador asked, “If we can't use military assets to apprehend the suspects, does the State Department propose we just let them get away, potentially to do the same or worse sometime in the future? And not to mention the message, letting them get away, would send to others thinking of doing the same thing.”
“We are not advocating doing nothing. We are warning of the potential consequences of any overt use of military force.”
“So, the State Department is advocating covert operations?”
Without waiting for a response from the State Department representative, the Ambassador continued, “I think we need to hear whether the Central Intelligence Agency has any answers. It will make a change from hearing about problems, potential or otherwise. Perhaps they can also explain why they failed to apprehend the suicide bombers, when they had a team in the vicinity of the hijackings two hours prior and they knew where the suicide bombers were before they boarded the ship. I'd also be interested to hear why they didn't issue a terrorism alert.”
Carl had vigorously argued to the Assistant Director that as the head of the CIA's Clandestine Service in the region, he should not represent the CIA at this kind of forum, not least because his position was covert. The Assistant Director over-ruled his objections and ordered him to attend.
Carl said, “I don't intend to justify why we made the decisions we did in the lead up to the hijackings. Except to say, we had our priorities and decided it was more important to capture a senior Jemaah Islamiyah bomb maker, before attempting to stop the suicide bombers. I believed that was the right decision at the time and I still do.
“I'd also add in response to the Ambassador's question that we didn't issue a terrorism alert, because we believed it would have substantially increased the risk of a clash between our forces and either Indonesian or Malaysian forces deployed as a result of our issuing a terrorism alert.
“What we need to focus on now, is what can be done to apprehend those behind the hijackings, despite the military and diplomatic difficulties with the Indonesians.”
The Ambassador said, “Go ahead, we are all ears.”
Carl said, “We have been tracking a small boat that participated in the hijackings and we believe it may contain the mastermind behind the operation. Currently, the boat is traveling east along the coastline of the Riau islands opposite Singapore. The boat is in the vicinity of the Indonesian naval vessels referred to earlier. And any attempt to apprehend them at this point would certainly result in a direct confrontation with the Indonesian Navy.”
The Ambassador asked, “Why can't we provide the information to the Indonesian authorities and get them to arrest the individuals?”
The State Department representative interjected, “I think I can answer that question. The Indonesians may try to intercept the boat and arrest the individuals, but we doubt it. They are saying we need to present evidence of the men's involvement before they will act. This incident has seriously harmed their national pride. It has highlighted how weak their control over their territory is, and they would prefer a mysterious unknown, preferably foreign, group to be responsible. Already their media is saying that a Malaysian, Noordin Top, is behind the whole thing.”
The Ambassador asked, “Does the CIA have anything to add to that?”
Carl was surprised to find himself in agreement with the State Department's position, and responded, “No. Our view is substantially the same. In fact, we would go further. We think that telling the Indonesians where the suspects are, may result in the Indonesian military facilitating their escape.”
“What do we know about this supposed 'mastermind'?”
Carl replied, “We don't know much about him, apart from him being involved in smuggling. The radio intercepts show the name he uses is Malik, but that's a common name in Indonesia, and we doubt it's his real name. We suspect he is a smuggler with previous links to terrorist organizations, who saw an opportunity to make a substantial amount of money. We believe, he was in this for the money and not for ideological reasons, or at least ideological reasons weren't his primary motivation. If we fail to apprehend him, he may well disappear off the radar, never to be heard of again, or he may pop up in a couple of years time and try something similar, now he knows how easy coordinated ship hijackings are.”
The Ambassador said, “If we are going to apprehend the suspects somewhere the Indonesian military can't intervene then we going to have to keep tracking them. I understand the area in which we can track small boats is limited.”
Carl replied, “That's correct, Ambassador. In not much more than an hour's time, the boat containing the suspects will leave the coverage area. However, the Singaporean Navy has a means of covertly tracking the boat, once it leaves the coverage area of our satellites.”
“Will they use it and pass the information on to us?”
“I have yet to get a final confirmation, but I believe so.”
“Can you give us any details on that tracking capability?”
Carl replied, “All I can say is that it's a covert means of tracking boats and ships using an underwater device that doesn't rely on the presence of planes, satellites or ships. It's capable of operating for up to thirty hours. With the Singaporean's help, we intend to track the boat until it’s well clear of any Indonesian naval vessels, then apprehend the individuals on board.
The Assistant Ambassador said, “Why do we need to rely on the Singaporeans? We should use our own assets to do the tracking.”
“Carl responded, “And which asset to you suggest we use?”
“We could use an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle.”
“The Indonesians have threatened to shoot down any aircraft that violates their airspace. Eventually, the Indonesians, and in all likelihood by the suspects being tracked, will spot a UAV. I'm afraid, all a UAV will do is warn the suspects we are on their trail, and give the Indonesian Air force some badly needed target practice.”
The State Department representative added, “Giving the Indonesians the opportunity to shoot down a UAV will allow them a risk-free way of responding militarily, and will embolden them to attack a manned platform. We strongly advise against using a UAV in Indonesian airspace.”
The Ambassador said, “It seems to me that the Singaporeans have a better option than a UAV and we should use it. What about other suspects involved in the hijackings?”
Carl replied, “We have tracked a number of other individuals involved in the hijackings, but at this time we cannot apprehend them without a significant military incursion into Indonesian territory. We will continue monitoring their locations, and should the opportunity to apprehend them present itself in the future, we will do so.
The Ambassador said, “I expect you have a plan to capture this supposed mastermind. I'd like to hear it in outline.”
Carl turned on a projector attached to the notebook computer he had brought, then went to dim the room's lights.
The computer projected a map of the Singapore Strait and the Riau islands to the south on the screen behind Carl.
“The boat we are tracking is currently here, moving along the north coast of Batam Island. If it continues on this course, it will do one of two things. The boat will either cross the channel between Batam Island and Bintan Island then continue along the north coast of Bintan, or it will turn south into the channel between the two islands.
“If the boat continues along the north shore of Bintan, it will come within twenty five nautical miles of the Seventh Fleet. That will make it fairly easy to apprehend the boat's occupants using high-speed boats. However, we think it unlikely they will follow this route.”
The Ambassador asked, “Why is that?”
Carl replied, “That route doesn't take them anywhere except out into the South China Sea. It's possible their destination is one of the communities along the coast of Bintan, but the area is sparsely populated with poor communications to the rest of Indonesia. It's also relatively well policed, because the area is popular with Singaporean tourists. We think, for several reasons, they are more likely to take the route south into the channel between Batam Island and Bintan Island. We don't know what their destination is, but they may well be heading further south to somewhere along the Sumatran coast.”
“If they take the second route, where do we intend to apprehend them?”
“We evaluated several plans to apprehend the suspects. In summary, we concluded the distance through Indonesian waters is too great to use high-speed boats, and the risks of using helicopters to apprehend them at sea are too great. Chasing down a small boat at sea with a helicopter, with the objective of capturing the occupants alive, is fraught with difficulties, especially if the occupants of the boat are armed, as we are sure they are.
“We have concluded that the only feasible place to apprehend them is on land. We are hoping they will stop somewhere along the west coast of Bintan. If they do, they will be in range of helicopters from the Seventh Fleet, although our helicopters will have to fly across the island, which is an overland distance of between twenty and thirty five kilometers.
“Fortunately, we have an asset on Bintan, who we use occasionally, and we have instructed him to acquire a vehicle. When the terrorist's boat turns south into the channel, we will send him updates on its position, so he can keep pace with the boat on land. When we are ready to mount the operation, the asset will leave the vehicle in a suitable location for whoever goes in to apprehend the suspects.”
“And if they don't stop along the Bintan coast?”
“We continue tracking them and wait for another opportunity. Although, I should point out that the further south they go and the closer to the Sumatran mainland they get, the harder it will be to apprehend them, because they will get further away from the Seventh Fleet and further into Indonesian territorial waters.”
Carl continued, ”At their current speed, they will still be in the channel between the two islands at the end of today. It's likely they will stop for the night probably at some isolated location and that should present another opportunity to apprehend them.”
“And if they don't stop for the night?”
“If they continue traveling through the night, by tomorrow morning they will be too far away from the Seventh Fleet and too far into Indonesian territorial waters to execute this plan, and we will have to come up with a new plan.”
The Ambassador asked, “What about the Indonesian Navy and Air force?”
Carl replied, “The Navy is easy to deal with, we just route the helicopters well away from the Indonesian ships. The Air force presents some difficulties. We intend to use an unarmed civilian helicopter, which should attract less attention and a less immediate response.
“In addition, the Indonesians have serviceability problems with their military aircraft and we are already seeing a sharp reduction in the number of patrols they are flying in the vicinity of the Seventh Fleet. We intend to conduct the operation when no Indonesian military aircraft are in the air.”
“How long does it take them to get an aircraft up over the area?”
“We believe it takes them between thirty and forty minutes.”
“So if there is no Indonesian aircraft in the air, we have thirty minutes to get a helicopter in and out of Indonesian airspace.”
“That's about it, Mr. Ambassador.”
“Is that enough time?”
Carl replied with confidence, “It will be, as long as we don't encounter problems.”
Chapter 54
November 13, 2006, 09:00 local time
Carl watched the slow progress of the small boat across the electronic map of the Singapore Strait.
Carl asked, “How long before it leaves the area covered by the imaging satellites?”
His deputy replied, “Two hours at the most.”
“What happens then?”
“It disappears.”
“And the Indonesians are still refusing to let us go after them?”
”Now the hijacking crisis is over, the Indonesians are saying it would be an unjustified violation of their territorial integrity if US forces were to enter their waters in order to apprehend suspects. They say they will use force to stop any incursion. By the way, an Indonesian Naval vessel is within visual range of the boat.”
“And they won't arrest the men themselves?”
“They say they don't arrest people in Indonesia without evidence. They say we need to produce evidence and go through the established legal procedures.”
Carl wanted to use some choice expletives to describe the Indonesians, but just said, “So the perpetrators are going to get away?”
His deputy said, “There is one possibility we should consider. I spoke to Captain Fordham earlier. He said the Singaporeans have a means of covertly tracking vessels. Apparently, the US is involved in the project. He said if I wanted to know more I should contact someone called Charles Corrigan.”
Carl responded, “I know Corrigan. We used him as the cover to get the two Special Forces guys, Jackson and Bao into the country. Get Corrigan on the phone.”
***
As Carl hung up the phone, he came to a decision on what to do next. He straightened his tie, picked up the laptop computer and left his office, heading for the crisis meeting. He would keep the focus on his new plan, and use it to blunt any criticism about the CIA's performance to date.
When Carl entered the conference room, the meeting was already underway. He ignored the look from the Ambassador for being a few minutes late, and took a seat.
Captain Fordham, the Naval Attaché, began speaking.
“The current situation is as follows. All the Seventh Fleet ships are now in international waters in the South China Sea, twenty five nautical miles from the outermost Riau Islands, and twelve nautical miles from the limit of Indonesian territorial waters. Indonesia has two coastal patrol boats just inside Indonesian territorial waters following the Fleet. A third patrol boat is positioned in the center of the Singapore Strait. Two larger, frigate sized, Indonesian vessels are on their way from southern Sumatra and should arrive shortly. Indonesian warplanes are making regular patrols along the edge of their airspace, and US Navy planes are shadowing them from international airspace, when they are in the vicinity of the Seventh Fleet.
“The Indonesians are threatening to sink any foreign naval vessel that enters their territorial waters and shoot down any foreign military aircraft that enters their airspace. They are denying that hot pursuit applies now the hijacking incident is over.
The Ambassador asked, “Captain Fordham, would you characterize the situation as a standoff?”
“It's a standoff in a diplomatic sense, rather than in a military sense. US Naval assets, both ships and planes, could enter Indonesian waters and airspace at any time, and any resistance from the Indonesian armed forces would just result in their ships being sunk and their planes shot down. Why a diplomatic standoff developed, I'll leave to the State Department's representative to address.”
“Thank you, Captain. We may need to come back to you. We'll hear from the State Department's representative, the First Secretary for Political Affairs, next.”
The First Secretary referred to his notes before speaking. “Our relationship with Indonesia is the most difficult in this region for a combination of reasons that I expect most of you are familiar with. Recently, with a new democratically elected government in Jakarta, relations have been improving.
“Indonesia, because of its history as a country created out of a European country's imperial possessions, is especially sensitive about any threats, including symbolic ones, to its territorial integrity.
”We had hoped that the seriousness of yesterday's terrorist hijackings would make the Indonesian Government cooperate in efforts to hunt down those responsible. In particular, we hoped they would be amenable to hot pursuit operations by the US military. Initially, we were given strong indications that our request to allow US military forces into Indonesian waters would be approved, with restrictions of course and that is why we made a formal request. Unfortunately, the influence of TNI, the Indonesian military, which takes a hard line on these issues, was greater than we anticipated and the Indonesian Government refused our request outright.
“In hindsight, the State Department's insistence that we formally request the Indonesian Government allow pursuit of persons suspected of involvement in the hijacking, may have been a mistake. As not only was the request flatly refused, it was accompanied by a great deal of rhetoric about national sovereignty that doesn't bode well for future relations. It also gave Indonesia time to mobilize its military assets.”
The Ambassador said, “So, First Secretary, you are now saying we should have gone ahead and snatched any of the hijackers we could find, without asking the Indonesian's permission and consequently warning them of our intentions?”
“You could phrase it that way, Ambassador.”
“Anything else?”
“Yes, the Singaporean Government has formally requested that we not conduct any military operations from their territory or territorial waters. Privately, they have assured us that the official statement is for consumption in Indonesia and Malaysia, and they are well aware we can now conduct our operations from international waters. They also assure us, they will give any non-military support they can, particularly intelligence.”
The Ambassador asked, “Do the Singaporean have any advice on how we should deal with the Indonesians?”
“Their advice is not to make any militarily provocative moves. They say the Indonesians are not bluffing and will respond if we use military assets to apprehend suspects. They note that Indonesia has a word for this kind of situation. They call it Konfrontasi, which literally means confrontation, but with the implication that force can and should be used in order to protect the interests and territorial integrity of the Indonesian state.
“The State Department strongly urges that we avoid any actions that might prompt a military response. Such actions would in all likelihood result in an extended period of military tensions, and could, for example, result in Indonesia trying to prevent our ships using the Malacca and Singapore Straits.”
The Ambassador asked, “If we can't use military assets to apprehend the suspects, does the State Department propose we just let them get away, potentially to do the same or worse sometime in the future? And not to mention the message, letting them get away, would send to others thinking of doing the same thing.”
“We are not advocating doing nothing. We are warning of the potential consequences of any overt use of military force.”
“So, the State Department is advocating covert operations?”
Without waiting for a response from the State Department representative, the Ambassador continued, “I think we need to hear whether the Central Intelligence Agency has any answers. It will make a change from hearing about problems, potential or otherwise. Perhaps they can also explain why they failed to apprehend the suicide bombers, when they had a team in the vicinity of the hijackings two hours prior and they knew where the suicide bombers were before they boarded the ship. I'd also be interested to hear why they didn't issue a terrorism alert.”
Carl had vigorously argued to the Assistant Director that as the head of the CIA's Clandestine Service in the region, he should not represent the CIA at this kind of forum, not least because his position was covert. The Assistant Director over-ruled his objections and ordered him to attend.
Carl said, “I don't intend to justify why we made the decisions we did in the lead up to the hijackings. Except to say, we had our priorities and decided it was more important to capture a senior Jemaah Islamiyah bomb maker, before attempting to stop the suicide bombers. I believed that was the right decision at the time and I still do.
“I'd also add in response to the Ambassador's question that we didn't issue a terrorism alert, because we believed it would have substantially increased the risk of a clash between our forces and either Indonesian or Malaysian forces deployed as a result of our issuing a terrorism alert.
“What we need to focus on now, is what can be done to apprehend those behind the hijackings, despite the military and diplomatic difficulties with the Indonesians.”
The Ambassador said, “Go ahead, we are all ears.”
Carl said, “We have been tracking a small boat that participated in the hijackings and we believe it may contain the mastermind behind the operation. Currently, the boat is traveling east along the coastline of the Riau islands opposite Singapore. The boat is in the vicinity of the Indonesian naval vessels referred to earlier. And any attempt to apprehend them at this point would certainly result in a direct confrontation with the Indonesian Navy.”
The Ambassador asked, “Why can't we provide the information to the Indonesian authorities and get them to arrest the individuals?”
The State Department representative interjected, “I think I can answer that question. The Indonesians may try to intercept the boat and arrest the individuals, but we doubt it. They are saying we need to present evidence of the men's involvement before they will act. This incident has seriously harmed their national pride. It has highlighted how weak their control over their territory is, and they would prefer a mysterious unknown, preferably foreign, group to be responsible. Already their media is saying that a Malaysian, Noordin Top, is behind the whole thing.”
The Ambassador asked, “Does the CIA have anything to add to that?”
Carl was surprised to find himself in agreement with the State Department's position, and responded, “No. Our view is substantially the same. In fact, we would go further. We think that telling the Indonesians where the suspects are, may result in the Indonesian military facilitating their escape.”
“What do we know about this supposed 'mastermind'?”
Carl replied, “We don't know much about him, apart from him being involved in smuggling. The radio intercepts show the name he uses is Malik, but that's a common name in Indonesia, and we doubt it's his real name. We suspect he is a smuggler with previous links to terrorist organizations, who saw an opportunity to make a substantial amount of money. We believe, he was in this for the money and not for ideological reasons, or at least ideological reasons weren't his primary motivation. If we fail to apprehend him, he may well disappear off the radar, never to be heard of again, or he may pop up in a couple of years time and try something similar, now he knows how easy coordinated ship hijackings are.”
The Ambassador said, “If we are going to apprehend the suspects somewhere the Indonesian military can't intervene then we going to have to keep tracking them. I understand the area in which we can track small boats is limited.”
Carl replied, “That's correct, Ambassador. In not much more than an hour's time, the boat containing the suspects will leave the coverage area. However, the Singaporean Navy has a means of covertly tracking the boat, once it leaves the coverage area of our satellites.”
“Will they use it and pass the information on to us?”
“I have yet to get a final confirmation, but I believe so.”
“Can you give us any details on that tracking capability?”
Carl replied, “All I can say is that it's a covert means of tracking boats and ships using an underwater device that doesn't rely on the presence of planes, satellites or ships. It's capable of operating for up to thirty hours. With the Singaporean's help, we intend to track the boat until it’s well clear of any Indonesian naval vessels, then apprehend the individuals on board.
The Assistant Ambassador said, “Why do we need to rely on the Singaporeans? We should use our own assets to do the tracking.”
“Carl responded, “And which asset to you suggest we use?”
“We could use an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle.”
“The Indonesians have threatened to shoot down any aircraft that violates their airspace. Eventually, the Indonesians, and in all likelihood by the suspects being tracked, will spot a UAV. I'm afraid, all a UAV will do is warn the suspects we are on their trail, and give the Indonesian Air force some badly needed target practice.”
The State Department representative added, “Giving the Indonesians the opportunity to shoot down a UAV will allow them a risk-free way of responding militarily, and will embolden them to attack a manned platform. We strongly advise against using a UAV in Indonesian airspace.”
The Ambassador said, “It seems to me that the Singaporeans have a better option than a UAV and we should use it. What about other suspects involved in the hijackings?”
Carl replied, “We have tracked a number of other individuals involved in the hijackings, but at this time we cannot apprehend them without a significant military incursion into Indonesian territory. We will continue monitoring their locations, and should the opportunity to apprehend them present itself in the future, we will do so.
The Ambassador said, “I expect you have a plan to capture this supposed mastermind. I'd like to hear it in outline.”
Carl turned on a projector attached to the notebook computer he had brought, then went to dim the room's lights.
The computer projected a map of the Singapore Strait and the Riau islands to the south on the screen behind Carl.
“The boat we are tracking is currently here, moving along the north coast of Batam Island. If it continues on this course, it will do one of two things. The boat will either cross the channel between Batam Island and Bintan Island then continue along the north coast of Bintan, or it will turn south into the channel between the two islands.
“If the boat continues along the north shore of Bintan, it will come within twenty five nautical miles of the Seventh Fleet. That will make it fairly easy to apprehend the boat's occupants using high-speed boats. However, we think it unlikely they will follow this route.”
The Ambassador asked, “Why is that?”
Carl replied, “That route doesn't take them anywhere except out into the South China Sea. It's possible their destination is one of the communities along the coast of Bintan, but the area is sparsely populated with poor communications to the rest of Indonesia. It's also relatively well policed, because the area is popular with Singaporean tourists. We think, for several reasons, they are more likely to take the route south into the channel between Batam Island and Bintan Island. We don't know what their destination is, but they may well be heading further south to somewhere along the Sumatran coast.”
“If they take the second route, where do we intend to apprehend them?”
“We evaluated several plans to apprehend the suspects. In summary, we concluded the distance through Indonesian waters is too great to use high-speed boats, and the risks of using helicopters to apprehend them at sea are too great. Chasing down a small boat at sea with a helicopter, with the objective of capturing the occupants alive, is fraught with difficulties, especially if the occupants of the boat are armed, as we are sure they are.
“We have concluded that the only feasible place to apprehend them is on land. We are hoping they will stop somewhere along the west coast of Bintan. If they do, they will be in range of helicopters from the Seventh Fleet, although our helicopters will have to fly across the island, which is an overland distance of between twenty and thirty five kilometers.
“Fortunately, we have an asset on Bintan, who we use occasionally, and we have instructed him to acquire a vehicle. When the terrorist's boat turns south into the channel, we will send him updates on its position, so he can keep pace with the boat on land. When we are ready to mount the operation, the asset will leave the vehicle in a suitable location for whoever goes in to apprehend the suspects.”
“And if they don't stop along the Bintan coast?”
“We continue tracking them and wait for another opportunity. Although, I should point out that the further south they go and the closer to the Sumatran mainland they get, the harder it will be to apprehend them, because they will get further away from the Seventh Fleet and further into Indonesian territorial waters.”
Carl continued, ”At their current speed, they will still be in the channel between the two islands at the end of today. It's likely they will stop for the night probably at some isolated location and that should present another opportunity to apprehend them.”
“And if they don't stop for the night?”
“If they continue traveling through the night, by tomorrow morning they will be too far away from the Seventh Fleet and too far into Indonesian territorial waters to execute this plan, and we will have to come up with a new plan.”
The Ambassador asked, “What about the Indonesian Navy and Air force?”
Carl replied, “The Navy is easy to deal with, we just route the helicopters well away from the Indonesian ships. The Air force presents some difficulties. We intend to use an unarmed civilian helicopter, which should attract less attention and a less immediate response.
“In addition, the Indonesians have serviceability problems with their military aircraft and we are already seeing a sharp reduction in the number of patrols they are flying in the vicinity of the Seventh Fleet. We intend to conduct the operation when no Indonesian military aircraft are in the air.”
“How long does it take them to get an aircraft up over the area?”
“We believe it takes them between thirty and forty minutes.”
“So if there is no Indonesian aircraft in the air, we have thirty minutes to get a helicopter in and out of Indonesian airspace.”
“That's about it, Mr. Ambassador.”
“Is that enough time?”
Carl replied with confidence, “It will be, as long as we don't encounter problems.”
Chapter 54
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